Tahlequah, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

405
FXUS64 KTSA 041634
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1134 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1134 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

 - Gusty south winds and warm temperatures continue Monday.

 - Thunderstorm chances return by Monday evening through Tuesday
   night. Some severe weather potential will exist Monday night
   and Tuesday.

 - Below normal temperatures briefly return mid-week.

 - Warmer temperatures from Friday on, with low rain chances
   returning for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Gusty south to southwest winds are prevalent late this morning
across all of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with the
downslope flow also leading to a quick warmup and temperatures
already at normal highs for the day. Maximum gusts should remain
in the 30 to 35 mph range, although an isolated gust to 40 mph
could occur at more favored observation sites. Late in the
afternoon and into the evening hours, CAMs continue to show
potential for isolated thunderstorm development along the dryline
to the west of the area that then shifts eastward during the
evening and overnight hours. The more southward development should
be in a declining phase as it approaches southeast Oklahoma, with
any development across north central/northeast Oklahoma earlier
in the evening having the greater potential for severe weather in
the forecast area. Large hail would be the favored threat.
Additional, more extensive thunderstorm development remains
expected late this evening and into early Tuesday morning
primarily across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in
response to the low level jet. Hail would continue to be the
favored severe weather threat with strong to severe storms
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

All eyes are on the movement of a strong cold front on Tuesday
into Tuesday night, with additional strong to severe thunderstorm
development expected along the front during the afternoon and
evening hours. The front will likely begin the daylight hours on
Tuesday either just into parts of northeast Oklahoma or set to
move in. The front remains expected to move southward fairly
quickly, although most data keep the front lingering across far
southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas late afternoon into
early evening. If this frontal timing holds, this places a few
hour window for severe weather potential through about mid evening
before the front shifts south and east of the area. Mainly shower
potential will continue across northern areas Tuesday night until
an upper level disturbance clears the area. The front will remain
close enough to the area into Wednesday to support low chances for
showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon before dry weather
arrives areawide Wednesday night.

Beginning during the day Tuesday behind the front, much cooler
temperatures both during the day and during the overnights will
occur. Lowered highs for both Tuesday and Wednesday from the NBM
initialization by leveraging traditional MOS guidance due to
lingering cloud cover and on Tuesday, precipitation. With
decreasing cloudiness and a favorable placement of the surface
high, low temperatures in the 30s can be expected across northern
areas, along with some potential for frost.

The surface high will shift to the south and east by Friday, with
southerly winds and warmer temperatures making a quick return
Friday and continuing into the weekend. Friday night, a low chance
of showers and thunderstorms will accompany a disturbance moving
through the Central Plains. Better areal coverage of showers and
thunderstorms should move through the area in response to a
disturbance and weaker front Saturday night into Sunday.
Temperatures closer to normal look to start the next work week
behind the mid to late weekend front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with gusty south winds today. By this
evening, the consensus of the CAMs is to develop isolated storms
off the dryline and move them into eastern OK this evening.
Inserted prob30 groups at these TAF sites for the evening hours to
cover. Guidance also has storms in the vicinity of NW AR after
midnight tonight and have inserted prob30s to cover potential
there. Confidence in how this evolves was not great enough to go
higher than prob30 mention for now. MVFR cigs are expected behind
a front by 12Z at KBVO, and ahead of the front across NW AR.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  61  71  48 /   0  30  20  30
FSM   82  64  82  55 /   0  40  30  40
MLC   81  68  83  51 /   0  20  10  30
BVO   82  55  65  45 /  10  40  30  30
FYV   80  59  75  48 /   0  60  50  40
BYV   80  60  69  47 /   0  60  60  50
MKO   80  64  78  50 /   0  30  10  30
MIO   80  57  65  46 /   0  60  60  40
F10   81  64  78  48 /   0  30  10  20
HHW   80  68  85  58 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30